As if the expectations weren’t already going to be high for Henry Davis as the number one overall pick in 2021, the circumstances around his selection may have added an extra target on his back.
The Pirates signed Davis to an under slot deal, using the savings to sign players later in the draft like Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo. That forced a narrative that the Pirates took a lesser player with the first pick, and that he will never live up to the number one overall pick.
Unfortunately, injuries have limited the catcher to just 286 plate appearances over a season-plus, going back to his draft year.
That just hasn’t been enough to get a full evaluation on Davis to sway opinion one way or another. It’s unfortunate that he’s been hurt, and that will certainly slow down the consensus top college bat during his draft year. His ascension to his majors wasn’t ever going to be as simple as just hitting his way there.
What We Know
Davis was the top rated college hitter in the draft class, and when healthy, has flashed that. In just 100 plate appearances with Greensboro in 2022, he posted a wRC+ of 180. Overall, even with his struggles in Double-A, he still finished the year with a 136 wRC+ and .852 OPS.
He launched a home run in his first game with Altoona, but injuries derailed the majority of his stay there. In and out of the lineup, it was hard to find any kind of consistency at the plate and his overall numbers showed that — .207/.324/.379 with a 97 wRC+ and a 22.1 K% (not bad but higher than his time in High-A).
Didn’t take Henry Davis long, did it? #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/wUv7igEdds
— Anthony Murphy (@__Murphy88) May 10, 2022
One of the ways that could help is to make an adjustment at the plate to put himself in less of a position to get hit by pitches. He was hit 20 times in 255 plate appearances last season — one of 18 players in all of the minors to reach that mark. Of the 18 who got hit at least 20 times, he did so in over 100 fewer plate appearances.
The injury to his wrist obviously sapped some of his power, as Davis’ line drive rate was cut in half (28% down to 14%).
What Still Needs To Be Found Out
Maybe the biggest concern about Davis is what position he was going to play. He has one of the strongest arms behind the plate, but there are questions about his receiving and pitch framing.
The automated strike zone will be in Triple-A this year, so the framing won’t be as much of an issue, but there is still work to be done. Despite the strong arm, he only threw out 12.82% of would-be base stealers last year, and allowed seven passed balls in 324 innings behind the plate.
Really he just needs time to continue to get work behind the plate, and let his play determine where his final position will be. He got some very brief work in right field at the end of the season in Altoona, but the focus should remain behind the plate.
Going back to the 2021 draft, there was never really a clear cut number one option, with several names being tossed out there — and Davis was very much in the mix as well. The whole situation gets a bad rap just looking at that pick, as names like Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar are performing well (Jack Leiter, another option struggled in his pro debut), and Davis has struggled to stay on the field.
The fact is, we still aren’t sure what kind of player Davis can be. He has shown that power when healthy, but he’s going to need to find a way to stay on the field to take his development to the next step.
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