Pirates Prospects Daily: Are the Pirates Moving to the Next Stage of the Build?

There are plenty of reasons why it is so critical to ensure that you create as much of a prospect pool as possible, especially as a smaller market team.

With the right kind of depth now in the system, it has freed up the Pirates to be able to trade one for a player that can make an impact at the major league level immediately, taking out the risk factor that comes with prospects.

We saw that earlier in the offseason with one of their first moves, trading Jack Hartman for Ji-Man Choi.

The Pirates again moved a prospect for a major leaguer, trading right-handed pitching prospect Nick Garcia in exchange for Connor Joe. In the grand scope of things, it’s a fairly simple trade, but there are quite a few observations I have off of it.

– Joe probably slots in as the starting left fielder, for now. He’s a solid fielder in left by most metrics, walks a ton, and has been a near average hitter at the major league level (career 92 wRC+). This isn’t a groundbreaking move by any means but it does address yet another position of need, right-handed outfielder.

– Regardless of the impact Joe truly has with the Pirates, this trade is interesting as it signifies a new stage in the build under Ben Cherington. When he came on board it was all about stockpiling as many prospects as possible and starting to develop them.

Now that the team is starting to see the depth they have envisioned, it’s time to find the best way to leverage the prospects in making the major league team better, whether it be trading or promoting them.

– In regards to the system, this is another move that kind of loosens the belt when it comes to the pending logjam they are going to have in the minors this upcoming season. We saw it a little bit earlier in the month when they left themselves in a position to have some bodies plucked out by the minor league phase of the Rule 5, now this.

I broke down how the potential rotations at each level were starting to shape up, and Altoona was one of the hardest to put together. While Garcia was likely to be one of the better, if not the best, starters in Altoona next year, moving him does free up a spot in the rotation coming forward.

– Garcia is an interesting player to move, as 2022 was his first season as a full time starter and he managed to throw over 100 innings. After switching to pitching in college, he didn’t make the move to the rotation until 2020, when the season was cut short. 

In Bradenton last year he started out the bullpen before making the move to the rotation full-time. He’s not a pitching prospect that is talked about much, but a move to a more pitcher friendly ballpark like Altoona could have changed that.

He is Rule 5 eligible next season, and the list of players that could get taken continues to grow. Quinn Priester, Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Kyle Nicolas among players that will also need to be protected. Some will make their debut this year and be added anyways, but shaving a name off the list was something they were going to want to do at some point.

Regardless of how you feel about the additions, the Pirates have stayed very busy this offseason in reshaping the roster. Joe is just the latest of several moves made by Cherington.

Highlight of the Day

Pirates Prospects Daily

By Tim Williams

**The Pirates added Connor Joe for Nick Garcia. They have been targeting right-handed hitting outfielders this offseason. Miguel Andujar was brought in at the end of the 2022 season, and re-signed to a one-year deal. Prior to adding Joe, they also brought in Ryan Vilade. I think if you look at any one of these players, you could raise questions about their ability to have success. If you look at the group, the odds are higher that the Pirates come away with this with at least one outfielder who can provide positive MLB value — possibly as part of a platoon with one of the younger lefties.

**Ethan Hullihen looks at the Pirates’ estimated 2023 draft pool.

**John Dreker breaks down all of the latest Pirates winter league action, where there was a double-header in Australia and a walk-off win in Mexico.

**Missed yesterday? Anthony broke down how the Pirates are focusing on defense behind the plate with the signing of Austin Hedges.

Song of the Day

Pirates Prospects Weekly

Ethan Hullihen looks at the 2023 Pirates draft pool in his latest Pirates Business update.

Pirates Business: Estimating the 2023 Draft Pool

I’ll have my latest First Pitch on Monday afternoon.

Anthony began writing over 10 years ago, starting a personal blog to cover the 2011 MLB draft, where the Pirates selected first overall. After bouncing around many websites covering hockey, he refocused his attention to baseball, his first love when it comes to sports. He eventually found himself here at Pirates Prospects in late 2021, where he covers the team’s four full season minor league affiliates.

Tim started Pirates Prospects in 2009 from his home in Virginia, which was 40 minutes from where Pedro Alvarez made his pro debut in Lynchburg. That year, the Lynchburg Hillcats won the Carolina League championship, and Pirates Prospects was born from Tim's reporting along the way. The site has grown over the years to include many more writers, and Tim has gone on to become a credentialed MLB reporter, producing Pirates Prospects each year, and will publish his 11th Prospect Guide this offseason. He has also served as the Pittsburgh Pirates correspondent for Baseball America since 2019. Behind the scenes, Tim is an avid music lover, and most of the money he gets paid to run this site goes to vinyl records.

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What build? Repeatedly signing and trading for mediocre veterans at the expense of your prospects is not a build. Choi, Velasquez, Hedges, Joe…with the combined money the team wasted on that collection of misfits they could have signed at least one free agent who actually could have strengthened the team. Hedges behind the plate, Joe in LF, and Choi at DH…and Wilson and Velasquez in the rotation. Oh yes, what a great build that will excite many fans…


Count Me Out is a brilliant song with a better video. Great pick.


With the recent free agent signings and trade the Pirates may have improved next years win total by about 2/3. Is this what it is all about or are they supposed to try to win the division, playoffs and world series. I don’t see any positive changes being made.


That is because there haven’t been any positive changes….its the same off season as the last 10 off seasons. To deny that is to be delusional.


Are you saying that if you compare the 2022 opening day 26-man roster, and 40-man roster to today’s 26 and 40 that you think they are basically both the same in terms of how they would perform for the next year, and for the next few years? Put them side by side and see if you think they are the same, i don’t see that. But, we do need to get better, and spending money on starting pitching would seem to be the best place to spend it.


You have a higher opinion of the players the pirates have acquired than I do. I hope you are right.


A must-read:


The Pirates can use This One Weird Trick to weed their way through some of the mediocre prospect glut they have in front of them. In particular, every at bat given to Tucupita is one wasted. Chances of him being a functional major league hitter with bottom-scale power are statistically close to zero.

Bae is teetering on the watch list here, as well.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Definitely not surprised. I’d noticed that trend with a lot of players that fit that profile. Which also doesn’t bode well for the A’s who essentially banked a completely lopsided trade on Ruiz being good.


thanks for sharing. “Marcano adding strength” was always part of my personal theory of how he could become good someday, but 1.3 yrs later, it doesnt really seem like that’s gonna happen. He’s on my personal “first guys to DFA” list. I dont think anybody is taking a guy that weak unless it’s coming with elite SS or CF defense. Not that we should particularly care if he DOES get swiped.

Good call to keep an eye on bae there as well.

I know you have voiced doubts about if the shift ban will impact many things, but i do wonder if it could lead to a path for some of the better guys from this bin of players? idk.

Last edited 1 month ago by jaygray007

This was also the prophecy that foretold Adam Frazier’s decline. He was exceptionally lucky on balls in play during his “breakout” year with us before immediately coming back to earth after being traded. Never was gonna be sustainable.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Also why, during one of my many dreams of “What could we maybe receive back for Reynolds?”, I originally saw Tyler Freeman as a top 100 guy and thought maybe, but read his profile and went, “Oh, hellll no”. He could be a Kwan, but he could also be another Marcano.


kinda surprised to see that Bae managed a 108 max EV. no barrels tho.

Last edited 1 month ago by jaygray007

Good surprised or bad surprised?

I’ve been skeptical of just how much signal max exit velo provides ever since Francisco Liriano plugged a couple 109mph grounders over the first few years this data was available.

Left me with the unscientific impression that just about any grown-ass man can run max exit velos in that range against the kind of velo that comes at them these days.


Liriano was an interesting hitting pitcher, it looked like he just had no interest in hitting while batting, but then when a hit was needed, he looked like a totally different hitter up there. It was also said at least once by the announcers that he could put on a bit of a home run display during batting practice.


Nice memory!


I’d say it’s not a new stage. A new stage will arrive when the team begins to promote heavily from Altoona an Indianapolis.


Bringing Joe onboard definitely shows this FO is ready to spend, have you seen how much eye black he wears? Unless they cheap out & buy black lipstick from the dollar store, this FO better be ready to shell out some hard cash on eye black


Whether this collection of signings help the Pirates go from 62 wins to 65 or 70 or 75 is mostly irrelevant. These are just bodies to help stabilize the major league team and maybe provide a little veteran leadership. The real goal remains seeing what the prospects can do. By the end of next season they should have a better handle on that, then hopefully start a serious build.


not related to Joe. Related to Hedges.

The weirdest part of the Hedges signing is how certain the pirates’ beat was that Roberto Perez was their “first, second, third, and fourth” choice for catcher.

I wonder if we end up with both Perez and Hedges when it’s all said and done.

one point i saw made is that last year they had to call up Roansy early because he was the only healthy pitcher on the 40. Maybe they really really wanna avoid having to call up Endy before they want to.

who knows.


They won’t spend the money to have a backup catcher making more than the league minimum. Not at this stage. Not with Endy one step away. Hedges and Perez were either/or.


Probably not done cleaning out more of the possible 40-man roster decisions, but otherwise what you see is what you have…

BTW never never are the Pirates signing any quality FA or will any quality FA sign with the Pirates, won’t spend the monies or give a contract length that would entice a quality FA…


I would suggest they will sign a quality FA when they get good. Hopefully that will come in our lifetime.


Sign another RH OF, deal for a SP. Let’s just call this duo Grossman and Carrasco, just for s***s and gigs. Let’s say that grossman costs about 5 total, and Carrasco makes i think like 15. payroll to an extremely reasonable 80ish. (Grossman is a switch hitter, but he should really only play vs lefties. his stats as a RHB vs lefties are quite good) (Carrasco has been rumored to be getting dangled)

Vs Righties:

LF Joe, CF Reynolds, RF Suwinski, 3b Hayes, SS Cruz, 2b Bae, 1b Choi, DH Santana, C Hedges

Bench: Catcher2, Castro, Grossman, Andujar

Vs Lefties:
LF Andujar, CF Reynolds, RF Grossman, 3b Hayes, SS Cruz, 2b Castro, 1b Santana, DH Joe, C hedges

Bench: Catcher2, Bae, Suwinski, Choi

Carrasco, Roansy, keller, Brubes, Velasquez, with several decent arms in AAA ready.

I think i’d enjoy this team! my favorite thing about it would probably be that the SP staff would run about 10 deep.

Last edited 1 month ago by jaygray007

I like it…. Only thing is you have all right handed rotation in a home park that begs for a lefty. Looks like they will add one more starter. I’m hoping it is a lefty.


fine by me, whateva. thats very far down my list of priorities but if they get a lefty who is as good as the other possible righties, then sure, neat!


maybe an Alex Wood would be available for trade after the Giants’ signings. he’d fit the bill. Talented, moderately priced.

obviously he has warts with durability but if he didnt have warts then he wouldnt be attainable.


My main issue with that roster, is you have 5 OF’s, and only 1 backup IF for 3 positions. You almost have to not sign Grossman, and find another utility guy that can play both the OF and IF. Not saying Castillo is the guy, but a guy like him who can play the IF, but also be your 5th OF if needed. Especially if you are going to roster both Choi and Santana, who are 1B/DH only


They’ll probably sign an infielder.


Wow, maybe Castillo does fit the bill.

While his 2022 didnt appear great, he did hit lefties well. a .788 OPS!

i suppose i’ve heard worse ideas than penciling him into the “vs lefties” lineup and having him around for injury fillin.

Last edited 1 month ago by jaygray007

I’d have to think more about this, but I feel like andujar, bae, castro can all move around, and Joe can play 1b. A long term injury would require a flexible player to be called up, but they’d be equipped to handle any individual game injury by moving guys around. I guess you’re probably right about a guy like castillo needing to be on the bench. Maybe they go 14 pos players and 12 pitchers to start the yr?

And heck, eventually Endy will be up and can play 2b and OF when needed.


To me the next phase of the build includes investing in desirable veterans who are controlled for multiple years. Until this management group takes this step via FA signings or trade, I’ll consider them to be in a wait and see mode. As in wait and see if the prospects show enough to really take the next step.


In the long run, it is normally better to use prospects as trade bait to get good ballplayers.

I emphasize GOOD ballplayers. And, I agree with Arky below….why spend $20 mil on a bunch of ‘meh’ players when you could’ve bought one good one. Of course, unless nobody on that price range wanted to come here??


A day or two ago I mentioned trying to get this kid who plays CF for the team in Pittsburgh. He has a contract for $6.75 mil this year. What if we offer 5 years/$106 mil? AAV of $21 mil.

$3 mil signing bonus – 50% in 2023; 50% in 2024
2024 – $14 mil
2025 – $17 mil
2026 – $20 mil
2027 – $23 mil
2028 – $26 mil
2029 – an option containing a $3 mil buyout

When the Pirates start to get serious about keeping kids like Reynolds who have already earned $100 mil in value for the club – 12.5 fWAR in his 3+ years, then the doors will open with other players around the league, and with our own young prospects.


Any new contract has to buy out this year’s 6.75 million. Right now, with no extension, he is looking at 6.75, 14?, 16?, and then signing something like 150 million over 6 years as a 31 year old, and maybe more if salary inflation goes up. In 2029 he is 34 years old, so there will be no big contract then. This is the problem for both him and the Pirates. The Pirates should probably not sign him to a long term contract that he would actually sign. For Reynolds to get a big payday he needs it either as an extension right now, or he has to gamble on being a highly sought after 31 year old entering the 2026 season.

At best, they could heavily front end load a new 4 year deal, assuming they are not spending big on pitching in 2023, so something like 2023 – 25 million, 2024 – 13, 2025 – 13, 2026 – 13. So 4/64. This way Reynolds gets a lot up front and 64 guaranteed, but then he will be looking for a big contract as a 32 year old (which he may not like). And the Pirates have space later to spend, and the Pirates keep a lot of Reynolds trade value after 2023, if they want to deal him because 2023 does not go as planned in term of progress.

Sure, if we had more money (or were willing to spend it, I don’t know which needs to be true), then we could just do a 6/140 now, but that apparently is not an option.


A while back someone (Gammons?) noticed that teams that teams with one player earning the lion’s share of a team’s payroll do not win championships. I don’t expect Reyonlds to play for the Pirates when his walk year arrives.


Too much survivor bias here to provide any relevant info. This is no different than Huntington’s 20% of payroll rule.

Such logic dictates the 2020 AL Champion Rays would’ve been better off spreading the 20% of payroll they put towards Charlie Morton on two our more shittier players, which would’ve been inarguably dumb.

Build enough quality depth across the roster that you’re not forced to fill roles with marginal free agents and you can easily spend a sizeable amount relative to payroll on one or two.

Your typical world series champion is a high-dollar squad and by that denominator almost always qualify themselves out of ever being able to spend a high proportion on a single player. Your sample of possible outcomes is almost completely eliminated right off the bat.

Last edited 1 month ago by NMR

Quality depth is sort of like foreign terminology to the Pirate Management. They cannot begin to even try unless they show the same interest in keeping Reynolds that they showed last year with Hayes.

They have the opportunity right now to try to lock in Bryan Reynolds, but it will take at least a 5/$100 mil commitment. To start with Hayes and Reynolds and start working on 3 or 4 others would almost look like an effort from Nutting to at least pay for a contending team for Pittsburgh.


I think i sense a pattern in the pirates’ acquisitions this winter.

All of them that i can think of, except for Choi – Vilade, Santana, Joe, Hedges – Display good “plate skills”. all of them have or had K rates in the high teens/ low 20s. all of them can take a walk. And all of them have visible raw power that exceeds what theyve been showing in games. You can tell by just looking at Santana, Joe, and Hedges that there is strength there. I’m going purely off of old fangraphs report for Vilade.

my guess is that they think they can tap into this group’s physical strength at least a tiny bit.

Oh, and Joe was significantly better vs “no shift” than vs “the shift” last yr.


sorry, gonna be peppering several thoughts in here.

i said it last night but… the main thing i dont understand is why they preferred dealing Garcia for a meh player over just spending a little money for a FA.

im sure some of Anthony’s points loomed here (AA logjam, R5 concerns, etc), but still.


Mostly because Nick Garcia stinks.


Gick Narcia


My issue is spending basically 20 million on five broken parts rather than all of it on one good player. Sigh.


statistically Choi and Santana are not broken parts. Joe is also decent stats wise (and may start in the minors for all we know). A player that is worth 20 million on a one year deal is not going to sign a one year deal, more like a 3-5 year deal, so making that comparison is a bit apples and oranges. That said, signing a pitcher to something like 3 years and 40 million would seem to be feasible, and would not block anyone, but so far that has not happened.


Here’s the thing. You don’t have to sign a guy for only one year! Spare me that they can’t afford that on a short term deal.
Sign Q or Manea for 2/25, sign KK to play center at 1/9, and make the trade for Choi. That’s roughly 25 mil. If that kind of short term increase is way too rich, then you’re in the wrong business.


i mean it’s fine – they had a lot of spots to fill. but yeah i mean i wish the model was “spend 20 mil on spare parts that you like and can improve, and then ALSO spend 25 mil on good player(s)”

If this was my own OOTP universe, i’d probably do something in the neighborhood of “Trade prospects for a good piece” and “sign one more player in FA.”

You could probably deal prospects for a nice 3 WAR SP who makes like $12 million, and also sign one more hitter for 10 million, and also a $5 mil RP.

but hey, i guess an 86 million dollar payroll is probably just unattainable with this terrible FO and ownership.

the philosophical question is why try to the extent that they already have if the most likely outcome is 75 wins? why not just run out a 45 million payroll and win 68?

none of this makes any sense unless there are a few more shoes to drop.


Here’s a reason: you want to promote prospects when they are ready, not you’ve got a need.


never said anything about starting non-ready prospects. im talking about, why would the team give 7 mil to Santana instead of giving like 500k to idk, Matt Adams. Why give 5 mil to hedges instead of just rocking and rolling with Delay and Heineman. Why trade for Choi and also pay him when you can just probably give Brandon Belt a million bucs.

they didnt HAVE to spend that money on these guys. They couldve just signed worse players.

i am hoping that giving real money to a few players they seem to like means that more moves are coming.


why not just run out a 45 million payroll and win 68?”
that’s the question that needs to asked over and over. These are not winning moves, they are barely improving moves. They have the feel of moves to keeps eyes away from the cash cow.


Whatever happened to the Players Union revenue-sharing grievance against the Pirates? I wonder if it was settled and this spending uptick is part of it, or alternatively if this is designed to avoid another complaint


More hodgepodge, slightly less nothingness (possibly).

I agree: surround our League minimum guys with 1-2 impact bats or arms. Stars & kids roster.

I mean, JD Martinez went for only $5million more than Austin Hedges


Does JD Martinez catch?


He can when he’s paying atttention in the OF.


It’s all fine and great to deal a prospect for a fine player. maybe this moves the win projeciton from like 74 to 75. neat. maybe adding santana, choi, hedges, and Velasques moved it from like 69 to 74. neat.

(i’ve taken the 75 number from Fangraphs projections. they currently have the pirates at 75. i know i know. you, the person reading this, think that theyre worse.)

none of this means anything unless they add another 5-6 wins to the team.

A nice 81ish win projection puts a playoff berth into the error bars. true talent 81 win teams luck into 86+wins all the time. i’d bet an 81 win team probably has a 20 pct chance at overperforming and making the playoffs. i’d bet a 75 win talent team has a 2 percent chance at overperforming an d making the playoffs.

keep adding. get to a nice 81 win projection. otherwise, the adds that theyve made are pretty pointless.

Scam likely



They have been so bad the last 3 years, we are all looking for something, anything, that might approach positive. Joe the last 2 years –

2021 – 211 PA, 115 wRC+, 848 OPS, 8 HR, 26 BB/41 K, 1.1 fWAR
2022 – 467 PA. 87 wRC+, .697 OPS, 7 HR, 57 BB/95 K, 0.0 fWAR

Wow, picking up a 30+ position player on the cheap.

Build, Re-Build? Last year we spent almost 1,100 MLB AB’s on guys like this, and I think we will spend even more MLB AB’s in 2022 on Choi, Santana, Joe, Hedges, Andujar, etc. This does not seem positive to me.

If we play the Prospects, can we be worse than 3 consecutive years of Winning Percentages in the .300’s?


They did play the prospects. In fact, they gave more at bats to prospects than any team in baseball last year.

You guys and this play the prospects narrative is ridiculous.


Yeah, Connor Joe appears to be a rinse and repeat of non-productive veterans they’ve been plugging holes with for the last several seasons. On the surface, it doesn’t make much sense to give up a semi-legit pitching prospect for him when a similar value player could be had on the open market. They obviously see something in him that others don’t. Let’s hope they’re right.


Yes, you certainly can be worse if you insist on playing every Petey Prospect.


It’s out of control. They literally want 12 rookies penciled into the daily lineup card.


The whole thought process is tipped over. I think it’s because the young guys haven’t failed yet. Who knows.


I think what I’m afraid of is that they might be about done with acquisitions for the off-season. I’d like to see them use their prospect depth to bring in a single player with more upside. The problem with the RH bats is that Vilade > Castillo > Andujar seem like they are closer to being designated than starting.

It’s getting harder to chalk some of these moves up to “well I guess the front office knows a lot more than I do” reactions. Everyone they are bringing in looks to fit on the bottom half of the 40-man. You really have to squint and hope and pray to see Moreta, Velasquez, and Joe adding much value in 2023. I hope I’m wrong. I hope the front office sees something I can’t in each of these players.


They’re either done or they have one more to go, which would be adding a LHSP. They have two more guys to drop from the 40-man once Hedges and Garcia are officially added, and after that anyone who would be added will bounce someone else that BC recently acquired, protected or offered a contract to.

I think Vilade goes for sure. The other DFA will be a pitcher, and the likeliest candidates are the ones whose contracts aren’t guaranteed: Wilson, Fernandez, De Jong. If they actually do acquire that LHSP, then two of the above hit the streets.

They need Kranick because when Spring Training opens, he can be stashed on the 60-day IL to make room for the backup catcher. Everyone else was either just protected, on a guaranteed contract or just treaded for.


Would love to see them get that pitcher in a trade. Use a couple of the fringe players on the 40-man to get a pitcher. If you have to throw, throw in a prospect.

Wishful thinking, but it would be nice to see.


Trade market for lefties isn’t great. I’m sure Washington would pay a lot of Corbin’s salary to clear him out, but they definitely should not want Patrick Corbin. I came up with 4, and one of them is a stretch:

Kikuchi from TOR – I think the Jays wouldn’t mind getting out from under that contract and might pay some of it down to get a better prospect return.

Rogers from MIA – he’s probably the most dealable of their starters, coming off a down year, but the Pirates would definitely have to part with talent. Problem is, Miami wants outfielders, and the Pirates have exactly one of those. I don’t think they match up.

Wood from SF – this one is a stretch, as I don’t know if either club would do it. Wood’s only signed for one more year, which I’m not sure the Pirates would want, and he gives SF flexible options to move in and out of the rotation. Then again, SF has two guys knocking on the door in Beck and Harrison, so they might listen to offers. The Giants would probably take a high-risk A-ball return for 1 year of a 5th starter (granted, Wood would be a 3 or 4 on most staffs, including the Pirates’).

Gomber from COL – he’s arb-eligible but controllable for the next 3 years. He’s a league average starter by xFIP and has a pretty wicked platoon split, which might make PNC the ideal park for him. I doubt Colorado would ask for that much in return – everything that makes him an ok fit in Pittsburgh makes him a bad fit in Denver, and he’s going to get more expensive. That’s one I could see happening.

But all in all, it might be easier to sign Duffy, Wade Miley or Mike Minor and not have to trade anyone away.




Did I just post what I was thinking?

Swag,Gorski and CSN have to be thrilled
Mitchell, Andujar and Suwinski have to be more thrilled
Lolo Sanchez, Connor Scott and Matt Frazier
have decided to retired


So they’ve traded the strategy of claiming post-prospects who haven’t done shit in the major leagues to trading for/signing guys who have done a little shit in the major leagues, just not lately. Fine, I guess that’s progress. Everyone is still either on a one-year deal or can be released without much fuss. It’s a semi-serious attempt to put a little less hodge and podge into the lineup while they wait for the Endy class to show up.

The stage I think we all would have LIKED to see is the one where they bring in the Burnett/Liriano/Martin type guys on multi-year deals. There were dudes available and affordable, and if you sign them, you’re tracking to the 2012 Pirates; instead they went cheap and short and now they’re tracking more like the 2011 Pirates.

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