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Saturday, November 26, 2022

Pirates Discussion: Reynolds Wants to Stay

Bryan Reynolds wants to stay.

Can’t help but think this recent hot streak has something to do with the fact he wasn’t traded at the deadline. Reynolds was 8 of 19 coming into the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks post-deadline.

It had been almost a month since he last collected a hit with an injury and birth of a child also in the mix over that time.

Could Reynolds become what the city of Pittsburgh had wished Andrew McCutchen would’ve become? Sign a long-term deal with the intentions of retiring a Pirate? The addition of the DH in the NL now makes it even more plausible. I do still think you need to have that conversation about moving him to a different spot in the OF near-term if the discussion is about putting the best possible lineup on the field in all facets.

The Joe Musgrove deal has been recently discussed in the comments as a star player cutting a deal to stay in a city he wants to be in. Bryan Reynolds has made it be known he wants to stay. Could Ben Cherington actually use this off-season to cut such a deal? Maybe this will be the moment they finally show the urgency that Ben spoke about in his press conference.

Ben Cherington locked up Ke’Bryan Hayes long term at the beginning of the 2021 season. The two year deal with Reynolds — that didn’t buy out any free agent years — could be the beginning of signing a long term deal that works for everyone.

Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Time: 9:40 PM EST

Pirates Starter: Zach Thompson (3-8, 5.15)

Diamondbacks Starter: Tommy Henry (0-1, 7.20)

Thompson Notes: Zach Thompson has been going through a rough patch lately. In his last three starts he’s given up 17 earned runs across 15.1 IP. Thompson’s most used pitch this season is his cutter (36.5% per Baseball Savant). It was a very effective pitch in 2021 with batters only slugging .284 against the pitch. So far in 2022 batters are slugging .579 against his cutter.

LINEUPS:

Pirates

Diamondbacks

1. Josh Rojas (L) 3B
2. Alek Thomas (L) CF
3. Ketel Marte (S) 2B
4. Christian Walker (R) 1B
5. Daulton Varsho (L) RF
6. Jake McCarthy (L) LF
7. Seth Beer (L) DH
8. Carson Kelly (R) C
9. Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

+ posts

Raised in Cranberry Twp, PA, Jeff attended Kent State University and worked in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, before moving to New Orleans in September of 2012. His background is as an Engineering Designer, but he has always had a near unhealthy passion for Pittsburgh sports. Hockey and Baseball are his 1A and 1B, combined with his mathematical background, it's led to Jeff's desire in diving into analytics. Jeff is known as Bucs'N'Pucks in the comments, and began writing for Pirates Prospects in 2022 after contributing so many useful bits of information in the comment section.

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AdministrativeSky236

What will castro’s punishment be? For sending a guy down due to mental mistakes, taking his phone onto the field is a pretty big goof

Colin

He took his phone on the field? If that’s true he’d be sent packing. Leave your phone in your locker and do your damn job

AdministrativeSky236

Flew out of his pocket while sliding into third, pretty disappointing imo

john_fluharty

Oops!

Colin

Absolutely unacceptable. I like Castro but he can be a distraction elsewhere after that

Wilbur Miller

Underwood seems to have an incredible talent for blowing up games.

1979andCounting

Reynolds still looks like a young kid. I think that justifies a 6 year deal.

ironmike56

Chavis flat out crushed that ball….

PirateRican21

Rodolfo “Mr. Hustle “ Castro!

HeyFred

With his cell phone in his pocket? What?

Anthony

Wasn’t his knock something about maturity issues? Then he totally redeems himself with that gaffe in his first game back, that’s an embarrassment. I have no words.

PirateRican21

Juan Soto finally homer, home crow is going crazy.

1979andCounting

Understandable about crowd after 26 scoreless innings! It’s a tough game even when spending $200 million.

b mcferren

I can’t see how Zach Thompson gets his contract tendered this December

PirateRican21

He’s a serviceable 5th-6th starter, unless we sign like 2 legit FA starters he might be around for at least one more year as a starter.

AdministrativeSky236

He’s had a few bouts of sustained success at the mlb level, wonder if he has options?

docdon385

According to Greg Brown, Shelton said he’s tired of tipping his cap to opposing pitchers and wants to get the offense going. Naturally he puts Newman back in the lead off position with Gamel in the clean up spot. That should do it.

1979andCounting

Maybe there’s a clue there that Shelton isn’t real happy with Haines.

Danatural08

Did BRey say he wants to stay recently? Sorry, been out of the loop recently, & don’t see any quotes in the article, so I just wondering where this is coming from

AdministrativeSky236

I think it was a post gazette article that had some solid quotes about him wanting to stay

docdon385

So, we can try reading the body language and tea leaves and come to the conclusion that Reynolds wants to stay in Pittsburgh. Hurrah! I hope that parts true, but Reynolds isn’t the part of this discussion that really concerns me. He’s not the wildcard here, the Pirates are. Do the Pirates, and by that I mean ownership because ultimately that’s who writes the check, want him to stick around enough to pay him well enough to do so? I don’t think Reynolds wants the moon, but I doubt he or his agent would agree to any deal that they didn’t see as fair. Would you?

The Musgrove contract in which he “made a deal” to stay in SD was worth $20 million a year for 5 years. Can you actually envision the Pirates paying Reynolds anything like that kind of money or is Musgrove’s value significantly more than that of Reynolds? Hayes is currently their highest paid player and the recent contract he agreed to was around $70-80 million over 7-8 years. Would Reynolds be willing to accept that? Who knows? At the least that kind of deal should be offered to him, if it hasn’t been already.

As a fan all anyone can do is keep on hoping that either Nutting is starting to care about the team winning or that he’s worried about the MLBPA suing him again and might do something like this to keep them at bay or that all this talk is just smoke to keep everyone guessing. I’d like to believe it’s the first of those things because otherwise even if they managed to sign Reynolds it would just be a one-off and not something to indicate that they plan to continue building the team.

TNBucs

Musgrove is worth more–SP is more in demand than OF and he was set to enter FA after this season which gave him more leverage. Given Reynolds’ age relative to Hayes’ and that he doesn’t come with the floor of gold glove defense that Hayes came with, I think a fair deal will be shorter and come with a total that is somewhat less than Hayes’, though the AAV should be slightly higher.

TNBucs

It was probably unrealistic to think he’d sign an extension after a 6 WAR season–he had to see if that was repeatable in which case he’d be looking at a 9-figure deal; the Pirates are not going to extend someone after a possible career season (nor should they). It seems much more realistic now that they can come to an agreement by basing value on the average over his four seasons (or, possibly, three seasons excluding 2020).

AdministrativeSky236

Good point, based on bwar he is a 3.5ish win player for the last 4 years. Not sure what a comp would be for that in the open market but I would have to guess a gradient of 10-15m/year for maybe 5-6 years would be the higher end of an offer nutting would approve (optimistically), but im not sure that gets it done

skliesen

Here’s where I am on Reynolds…either shit or get off the pot. Which is to say, either invest either monetarily or by trading from prospect depth to build a legitimate 40-man roster, or trade him away this winter for higher ceiling prospects.

If they take the course of building around him, than I can see giving him an extension. Although not one that’s going to go past age 33 or 34 at the latest.

JimEastTennessee

After the 2 year deal, I expected him to be traded this year; now I am hopeful for an extension. “Make it so.”

AdministrativeSky236

BnP, what would you want an extension to look like ideally?

TNBucs

If you take Marte’s six years and make the sixth year an option year, lock in the $7MM Reynolds agreed to for next year, and then apply discounts for the arb years and a discount for the two years of FA given the risk to the team in committing that far out, then I think you’re closer to $60MM over five years with a team option taking the deal to potentially $80MM.

I agree with frontloading the contract so that he doesn’t actually make $7MM next year even though that figure goes into the calculations. As much as I’d love to see an extension, simply keeping him the next three years at a cost of ~$30MM via arbitration or short-term extensions isn’t a bad idea.

AdministrativeSky236

Interesting! 6/120 would be a big deal and probably what he would get on the open market, though maybe not as much of a discount price. I do really like the front load for next year to leave flexibility in future years as we plan to compete

Also: I found an article for the 2022 FA class that said each WAR costs about 5-6m to acquire, so 15-20 per year would be right in range with him being a 3-4 WAR player on average

Last edited 3 months ago by AdministrativeSky236
TNBucs

BnP will likely have a better answer, but I somewhat arbitrarily looked at possible comps. In March 2017 Kevin Kiermaier was coming into his age-27 season coming off of two seasons in which he put up a total of 12.7 bWAR. The Rays signed him for $53.5MM over six years buying out two years of FA with an option for an additional year.

Reynolds is in his age-27 season with one less year of control than Kiermaier had when he signed his extension, but this seems to give a ballpark figure to work with. Perhaps a 5-year deal at $57 (and an endorsement opportunity with Heinz) with a team option for a sixth year at ~$16MM? (Noting that he’s signed for next year at ~$7MM so this would be based on salaries in the neighborhood of $10MM, $13MM, $16MM, $16MM for the following four years but of course with the option of shifting much of that to be up front which might reduce the total as was the case with Hayes.)

With his current play and that he’ll be in his 30’s for those last two years, this seems too high. With his play last year and in 2019, this would be a bargain. Kiermaier’s deal, like so many extensions, also serves as a cautionary tale–after getting 12.7 bWAR the previous two seasons, in the six years of the extension they’ve gotten a total of 15.7 bWAR and only 4.4 bWAR in the two extra years of control (which at $23MM for those two years is still good value but something that also is likely replaceable by a younger player who would be much cheaper).

AdministrativeSky236

Great info, I love a good comp! I would be very happy with 5/57 and a significant team option, maybe a few performance bonuses (maybe tied to postseason play?) built in could give him earning potential of a few million higher

TNBucs

Yes, I like the idea of performance bonuses.

robertkasperski

If he truly does want to stay in Pittsburgh and not hit the FA market, a deal should get done. It really just depends upon the real wishes of the player and his family. Will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

MShaeffer4444

The player wanting to stay is the hard part. It takes two to tango (see Soto and the Nationals). Him not seeming like a guy who is going to ask for the moon leads me to believe that a deal will get done. In honestly, there’s no excuse for one not to get done.

robertkasperski

Yes, it does take two to tango. It will really depend upon if he truly wants to stay in Pittsburgh and if he would be willing to give up his best shot at the biggest contract he will ever get. His FA year is his age 31 season. Any years into his FA years could cost him in either money, length of term or both. Will be interesting to see what he really wants to do. Myself, I would rather be in a Pittsburgh where I could go out to dinner or to a grocery store and many of the people I will see will have no clue who I am. I would take less money than I could get from a higher profile team for the trade off of more privacy. Like I was saying will be interesting to see how this plays out.

AdministrativeSky236

Reynolds is definitely not the level of player that Jose Ramirez is, but I think it would have to be something similar to his deal. Clearly it was a hometown discount yet Ramirez got life changing money for generations and seemingly both he and the club are very happy

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