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First Pitch: Football and Analytics and Why Did the Steelers Kick a Field Goal?

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Before I started this site, writing about baseball was only part of my job. My main focus was on the NFL, college football, and the NHL. I wrote about fantasy sports, transaction analysis, and betting analysis about a decade before sports betting started to become legal everywhere.

During the span of this site, I’ve slowly phased other sports out. That happens when you’re covering baseball all year, and trying to remember every detail of the 200+ prospects that you cover. But lately, I’ve missed it.

Chalk it up to marrying an Auburn fan, I guess, but since last season I’ve been trying to get back into college football. And this year I’m trying to get back into the NFL, while watching hockey more often. The latter will probably be accomplished by watching my new hometown team — the Carolina Hurricanes — likely pissing off half the sports world with their post-game celebrations.

Working as a sports writer has changed the way I’ve watched sports. Instead of pulling for one specific team, I find myself pulling for good stories around each league. It’s easy to say “I’m going to watch more than just the Steelers” after that loss to the Patriots, and it’s hard to compare that blowout to the crazy Saints/Texans game last night.

As a baseball writer, covering the league during a time when advanced metrics have taken over, I’m wondering why this hasn’t been fully embraced in the NFL, or really all of football. I’ve seen the analytics on how you should almost always go for it on fourth down. Then there’s a situation like the Steelers, kicking a field goal when they needed touchdowns.

In that scenario, they needed two touchdowns, a field goal, and a two-point conversion to tie the game. They only had four more possessions the rest of the game, which meant they needed to be nearly perfect going forward — not to mention their defense needed to be perfect in stopping the Patriots from scoring again.

So for those of you who have been watching football more frequently than I have, what happened in that scenario? Are the Steelers basically the Mets of the NFL when it comes to embracing analytics? Is this a league-wide trend? Is there an NFL version of the A’s or Rays who basically play the game like they’re playing a game of Madden? Give me your thoughts in the comments.

TODAY’S ARTICLES

If you missed it yesterday, this article is a new format approach, focused on having a daily discussion thread. It doesn’t have to be limited to what I write about, or what else is in the article.

As for Pirates talk, John Dreker recapped the 2019 Morgantown team yesterday. Today we’ve got our top ten from that team going up. We’ll also have the usual live discussion for tonight’s game, and any other news that comes up.

DAILY QUIZ

Today’s quiz isn’t updated for 2019 yet, and at the end of this season there will be a new entry for Josh Bell’s season. There might even be an entry for Starling Marte, who isn’t on the list below. That ends the spoilers. I got 53/63.


PIRATES HISTORY

By John Dreker

Seven former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, including one Hall of Famer. Current Pirate Chad Kuhl turns 27 today. We start with a disappointing player for the Pirates, 1958-59 first baseman, Ted Kluszewski. He was once a feared slugger, but the Pirates got him on the downside of his career. From 1953-56, he hit at least 35 homers and drove in at least 100 runs each season. With the Pirates, hit hit .284 and drove in 54 runs in 160 games.

Others players born on this date include:

Neil Walker, 2009-15 second baseman. I think you know who he is. He turns 34 years old today and currently plays for the Miami Marlins.

Chad Hermansen, 1999-2002 outfielder. Sigh. He turns 42 today.

Bob Garber, 1956 pitcher. Signed with Pirates as an amateur free agent in 1948 and missed time serving in the Korean War. Gave up one run over four innings in his only two Major League games.

Brandy Davis, 1952-53 outfielder. Hit .187 over 67 games in his only two years in the majors.

Kid Durbin, pinch-runner on June 30, 1909. His only game with the Pirates was also the first game ever in Forbes Field. The Pirates traded for him a month earlier and he ended up playing just that one game, which was his last Major League game. He played just 32 games in the majors, yet still played for three teams that won the World Series.

The Pirates had a young first baseman named George Kelly for a brief time during the 1917 season. He started the year with the New York Giants and when Honus Wagner got hurt, the Pirates got Kelly to replace him. Wagner was in his last season and playing first base. When Wagner returned, Kelly went back to the Giants. It didn’t look like a big deal at the time, but it could have changed Pirates’ history if they kept him.

Kelly was one of the leading run producers in the NL from 1920-25, averaging more than 100 RBIs a season. During that time, the Giants went to four straight World Series. That eventually led him to get elected to the Hall of Fame. During the Giants four World Series seasons, the Pirates finished second once and third three times, so having Kelly and keeping him away from the Giants could have made a difference those years. He was born on this date in 1895.

On this date in 1934, Burleigh Grimes picked up the win in 9-7 victory over the New York Giants. It was the 270th win of his career. Grimes was the last of seven future Hall of Famers used by the Pirates in that game. Pitcher Waite Hoyt started the game and only lasted three innings. The first five batters in the starting lineup were Lloyd Waner, Freddie Lindstrom, Paul Waner, Arky Vaughan and Pie Traynor. Here’s the boxscore.
Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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