The Pirates didn’t do much at the trade deadline, but still have visions of contending in 2020. That doesn’t seem like a very realistic idea from a team that is closer to the number one pick in 2020 than a playoff spot in 2019. It also doesn’t seem very realistic if the idea is to return this same team next year and hope for better health and performance.
Yes, this team has been ravaged by injuries, and inconsistent performance at times on both sides of the ball has led to further bad stretches. But without all of that, the team is still just one of the many contenders for the two Wild Card spots. And you can’t just discount injuries or poor performance, since that’s something you have to deal with in some form every year.
So the question becomes, how can the Pirates contend in 2020? I’ll be looking at that in two parts, first focusing on the position players, and what the Pirates need to focus on upgrading heading into the season.
Catcher
The Pirates have Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings as their catchers for next season. That sounded like a good combo this time last year, when Diaz was having a big season. This year has been much different, with Diaz posting a -1.0 fWAR, due to a combination of bad offense and poor defense. Of the two catchers, Stallings has been more productive this year with an 0.5 WAR, but that only comes in 89 plate appearances.
The Pirates went from having the best catching duo in the game in 2018, to having one of the worst catching groups in 2019. They don’t have to improve to first again, but they need to be much improved over the current standing. That might require some outside help, so they’re not solely relying on Diaz to be the version we saw in 2018.
First Base
Josh Bell looked like an MVP candidate the first two months of the season. He has since struggled, posting a .213/.318/.448 line since the start of June, with nine homers. The power production is still good, but down from April and May. The walk rate is good, but the average is low, in part due to a .226 BABIP.
The lower BABIP might be due to a different batted ball profile. Bell is hitting 46.5% of grounders during that time and 16.2% line drives. By comparison, he had a 42.9% ground ball rate and a 22.4% line drive rate the first two months. The BABIP on line drives is always the highest, and seeing a reduction of that, in favor of the grounders, can be damaging.
There’s no reason for the Pirates to move on from Bell. But you do have to be concerned with the fact that his offensive promise has only fully shown up for two months in one season so far. Perhaps he’s not as good as those first two months would indicate, but I also don’t think the last two months are an indication of his true talent. I think an adjustment has been made on Bell, and he hasn’t quite adjusted back.
The Pirates have Jose Osuna and Will Craig as alternative options here. The first base position is now stronger than other positions, but still has some question marks.
Second Base
Adam Frazier has been the starting second baseman this year, after winning the job with a big second half in 2018. His first half that year wasn’t good, ending up with him being sent down to Triple-A due to poor offense.
This year has a similar story. He had a .672 OPS through the end of June, but has started to heat up in July with a .922 OPS. Perhaps he’s the Adam LaRoche of second base, starting off slow, then dominating in the second half. His defense has been good all year, leading to him being a 1.5 WAR player right now.
The Pirates have Kevin Kramer and Cole Tucker as options for second base, with Tucker just recently getting work there for the first time. I think that either player has as much or more upside than Frazier. While Frazier hasn’t been bad as a starter, I think the Pirates would benefit from trying to find an upgrade and using Frazier off the bench, so that they can have a stronger bench player, and better than average to below-average production at second base.
Shortstop
Kevin Newman has emerged to take the shortstop job in Pittsburgh going forward. He’s hitting for a .309/.353/.424 line in 336 plate appearances, which combined with his defensive value has made him a 1.2 fWAR player so far.
Newman was hitting for more power earlier in the year, but that has faded, and his numbers now look similar to what you expected when he was coming up — a guy who could hit for a high average, get on base, and provide a bit of power. The concern here would be that if Newman’s average drops, he loses a lot of value. His average is built on a .337 BABIP, which is a result of his speed and an increased amount of infield hits. As long as Newman doesn’t see a decline in speed, he should maintain the current value.
The Pirates can definitely look to upgrade this position. That would either come from Newman adding more power consistently to his game, or from an internal option providing more value. Cole Tucker has yet to see his tools translate to the field consistently, and the Pirates are now trying him at second base, signaling that he doesn’t have the inside track on the future shortstop position.
Oneil Cruz is now the top shortstop prospect in the organization, with the only question being whether he can stick at the position. He’s handling the spot well enough to stick there, especially with his offense. However, he’s unlikely to help in Pittsburgh until at least late 2020, if not 2021.
Newman is the shortstop for next year, with Tucker and Erik Gonzalez as backup plans. That’s not a bad situation to be in, and definitely improved over the uncertainty the Pirates had at the beginning of this year.
Third Base
The third base spot has been weak in Pittsburgh this year. Jung Ho Kang struggled and has since been released. Colin Moran has been a near-replacement level player, hitting for a .762 OPS and not providing positive defensive value.
Fortunately, the Pirates have their top prospect, Ke’Bryan Hayes, in Triple-A. They haven’t shown any signs that they’ll be calling him up, or preparing him to be the Opening Day third baseman in 2020. You can make an argument that he’s not ready yet, as his offense hasn’t been consistent this year. He came back from his injury in June with strong hitting, but has since slumped, and has a .743 OPS since his return.
Hayes provides strong defense, and value with his speed, so he would be more valuable than Moran even with lower offense. But the Pirates would still be looking to upgrade over that type of performance, since Moran isn’t setting a high bar right now.
The best approach might be to find a third baseman for the start of the season, use Moran off the bench, and let Hayes force himself into the starting situation.
Outfield
As I wrote on Monday, the Pirates have two of their three outfield spots set in 2020, with Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds both having a strong grip on their jobs. The final spot comes down to Gregory Polanco or internal candidates like Jose Osuna, Pablo Reyes, and Jason Martin.
No one in that group provides a lot of certainty. Polanco has dealt with injuries and inconsistent performance. Osuna is hitting well right now, but a look to Pablo Reyes shows that you can’t always trust small samples at the end of the year to carry over to the next season. The Pirates should give Osuna, Reyes, and Martin as much time as possible the final two months, while letting Polanco get as healthy as possible.
This would allow them to enter the 2020 season with a better plan for depth. Polanco will most likely be the starter, but the Pirates need some good backup plans. They need to figure out what they’ve got with the internal backup plans in order to determine how much help they’ll need from the outside.
Bench
It makes sense to write about the need for depth in a season like this, where the Pirates have seen so many injuries. I’m not going to go into detail on the bench right now, but the plan should be to have as much depth as possible.
That’s not groundbreaking analysis. It’s what every team should do. But how can it be done? That’s the important thing.
Going into the year with guys like Adam Frazier, Kevin Newman, and any other guy putting up league average at-best starting numbers is not a good plan for depth. Frazier can be a starter, but on a contender he’s better as a super utility player who can start in the event of an injury.
As we’ve seen this year, they need starters on the bench. That’s not always easy to accomplish. They can do that now by finding an upgrade at certain spots like second base, catcher, third base, and anywhere else where the production is average at best or in question. The Pirates aren’t getting back to contending in today’s MLB if they’re complacent with guys who are good enough to be starters, but not good enough to be above-average starters. They need to find upgrades in these situations, and use the former players to strengthen the bench.
Having a bench with guys like Elias Diaz, Adam Frazier, and Colin Moran puts you in a strong situation. You’re no longer relying on those guys to be starter quality in order to contend. You’re hoping they can be starter quality to give you a better option if your actual starter struggles or gets injured.
In a situation like with Polanco, where you’re going to go with the questionable option, it’s best to find a depth option like Frazier, Diaz, or Moran who can potentially be starter quality. Perhaps the Pirates have this internally, but they need to figure that out before the time comes to add guys from the outside.
