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Monday Mock Drafts: Final Mock Drafts for Pirates Offer Many Possibilities

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We are expecting numerous mock drafts over the course of the day leading up to the 7:00 PM draft tonight. Check today’s Morning Report for full details on the draft and upcoming coverage. Any new mock drafts that come up today will be posted in this running article and we will update the title each time one is added. I’ll also add any rumors that may come up over the day.

Baseball America updated their last mock draft with some tweaks and a new name getting buzz for the Pirates. I try to cover every possible name here during our coverage and with an earlier pick this year, many of the same names kept popping up for the Pirates. BA went with prep first baseman Nick Pratto with their pick for the Pirates in this mock draft, but they say there is buzz connecting the Pirates to Texas prep outfielder Tristen Lutz. He is someone who I haven’t mentioned yet because I haven’t seen his name near the Pirates. He’s usually in the late first round. Pratto has been mentioned often here as the top high school bat in this draft, who is also an outstanding defensive first baseman.

Lutz is playing center field right now. He projects as a right fielder due to average speed now, which could drop a tick as he fills out his 6’3″, 210 pound frame even more. He turns 19 in August, so that is high end for what you like to see from a high school pick. Most are turning 18 during their senior year and many are still 17 today, as they sit around waiting to hear their name called in the draft. Lutz’s bat fits the profile of the Pirates. He’s a contact hitter who uses the entire field with an advanced approach at the plate. He also has some pop in his bat, though they aren’t projecting 20+ homers a year at this point. He’s going to get on base, add some extra-base power and play a strong right field with an above average arm.

He would be a reach with the 12th pick, but the Pirates have never been afraid to think of their own and go for the player they like, so I could see them interested in a late first round pick at the 12th spot. I’d say that if they do pick him, they see him sticking in center field, even if he actually doesn’t play the spot down the line. There are a lot of players ahead of him with better projections, but they might see more in Lutz than everyone else.

Keith Law also posted his updated mock draft, which means we may not see a lot of new ones throughout the day, but we will be looking for them regardless. He has them going for projectable left-handed prep pitcher Trevor Rogers out of New Mexico. His biggest drawback is that he is a high school pitcher who turns 20 in November, making him nine months older than Lutz. He’s 6’6″ and touches mid-90s, but he has plenty of room to fill out still. His secondary pitches are all average, but he does show some decent control and he is all about projection.

Law also mentioned Shane Baz, Jeren Kendall and JB Bukauskas as possibilities for the Pirates from what he has heard. Bukauskas has just recently been a possibility due to one poor start in his last game, but while the results were bad, the stuff was still strong, showing his plus fastball/slider combo.

10:18 AM: I wanted to add in about Lutz that Prep Baseball Report has him rated 35th just among high school players. That’s all they cover, so they know Lutz well and their scouting report is almost dead on with MLB Pipeline, who has him rated 34th in the entire draft class. They are the highest on him, but Keith Law and Baseball America are very close, with all three putting him in the top 40.

Dueling Mock Drafts from Mayo and Callis

Both Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis provided mock drafts for MLB Pipeline. They also mentioned that they are going to do one final mock draft later today as they continue to search for information prior to the draft. Nothing new here from them like BA has with Lutz out of the blue.

Callis has them going with toolsy Vanderbilt center fielder Jeren Kendall, while Mayo has them taking Shane Baz if he falls to them. They also mention Trevor Rogers as a possibility, as well as Bukauskas if he falls and Florida starter Alex Faedo, who hasn’t lived up to the hype that had him #1 in this class early in the year for some people. Faedo has been all over the place recently in mock drafts, so it’s tough to get a feel for what his somewhat disappointing year (in the sense that he didn’t live up to the #1 hype) did to his draft stock. They have him going 10th and 17th in these mocks. I’ve seen higher and lower recently.

If you’re keeping track, it’s Shane Baz, Nick Pratto, Jeren Kendall and Trevor Rogers so far in the mock drafts. Basically, the players we have mentioned a lot over the year. Lutz is the only name who hasn’t been connected to the Pirates. Bukauskas and Faedo went to them in earlier drafts.

UPDATE: 10:50 AM: Very minor notes here for the second/third day watch, but the Pirates have scouted Forest HS heavily in Florida, where they have two noteworthy picks in the draft. Florida is always a loaded state for talent, so don’t let the rankings scare you here. Right-handed pitcher Hunter McMullen, who ranks 60th in the state and outfielder Andrew Eyster, who ranks 122nd, have both been scouted heavily by the Pirates. McMullen throws low-90s with a slider that has late life in the mid-70s. Eyster has a 6’3″ with room to fill out. He’s athletic, with a quick bat and solid approach.

UPDATE 5:35 PM: Eric Longerhagen, who has covered the draft for numerous years, posts his final mock draft over at Fangraphs. He has the Pirates taking Georgia prep lefty DL Hall. I’ve heard this name for the Pirates before and I just don’t see it. If the Pirates are going to go with a prep pitcher at this spot, I can’t see it being one with a 6’0″ frame, who doesn’t possess velocity or secondary pitches that blow you away. He mentions that he’s heard Jeren Kendall or JB Bukauskas here if either slips, but they didn’t in his mock draft.

5:55 PM: Expect final mocks from MLB Pipeline and Baseball America very soon.

Final Mock Drafts

John Manuel at Baseball America posted his final mock draft and he is sticking with Nick Pratto as the pick for the Pirates. He has Shane Baz, Jeren Kendall and Jordon Adell all being passed over for Pratto.

Just waiting on the last MLB Pipeline update that they promised this morning…and it’s in. Both Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis are going with Shane Baz for the Pirates. Callis had Kendall in the earlier mock, but now both of them have Kendall going to the Tigers with the 18th pick.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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