One of the players the Pittsburgh Pirates protected from the Rule 5 draft this off-season was Willy Garcia, who was profiled today as the number 18 prospect in our countdown. Garcia is an interesting case. He has two plus tools, with plus power and a plus arm. However, he doesn’t draw walks, and strikes out way too much. As John Dreker wrote during the season, there haven’t been many players who have gone on to play in the majors while having the strikeout and walk issues Garcia has. On the other hand, not many players have two plus tools.
So why would the Pirates use a 40-man roster spot on Garcia when the strikeouts and walks suggest the odds are slim that he’ll be effective in the majors? My guess is that they were focused on the tools he has, with the hope that he can correct the strikeout and walk issues as he gets older.
That’s part of why we ranked him in the top 20. Another reason was a trend that is taking place in baseball. Here is a look at a few key stats from the last five seasons.
|
Year |
PA/HR |
K% |
BB% |
|
2010 |
40.2 |
18.5 |
8.5 |
|
2011 |
40.7 |
18.6 |
8.1 |
|
2012 |
37.3 |
19.8 |
8.0 |
|
2013 |
39.7 |
19.9 |
7.9 |
|
2014 |
43.9 |
20.4 |
7.6 |
I don’t know if you can call the 2014 home run rates a trend. It’s only one year, and clearly stands out from the other years. On that same note, the 2012 season was clearly different from the 2010-11 years. The very next season, the home run totals went back to the 40 PA/HR range. It’s very likely that the home runs could bounce back in 2015, increasing to the rate they were at in 2010, 2011, and 2013.
There are two trends that seem apparent here: the increase in strikeouts and the decrease in walks. On the surface, it seems that the league is sacrificing walks and accepting strikeouts more often. Maybe that’s due to the quality of pitching that is coming through the game lately. Or maybe it’s the approach by the hitters to focus on power, which leads to more three-outcome approaches, or in some cases, two-outcome approaches.
As for a guy like Garcia, if he can carry his power over to the majors eventually, and maintains his strikeout and walk rates to the point where he wouldn’t be completely overmatched, then he would definitely fit in. It’s not out of the question that he maintains the same rates as he moves up. His rates at Double-A were bad in 2014, but were actually slightly better than his 2013 numbers in High-A. A hitter like Garcia, with power and a lot of strikeouts, seems to be more accepted in 2015 than 2010, especially if the drop in power is an actual trend.
There’s another trend that has been taking place across baseball over the last few years, and that is a focus on defense. Garcia also fits this trend, as he has a plus arm in right field, and enough speed and range to be a good fielder at either corner spot. The fact that he can provide strong defense in the outfield, plus hit for power, makes him a MLB bench option at the least in today’s game, even with the plate patience issues.
I don’t know if the Pirates added Garcia to the 40-man roster with MLB’s recent trends in mind. I still think they added him because of the tools he has, and with hope that he could develop further (and probably because they felt another team would select him in the Rule 5 draft due to the same reasons). But it seems like Garcia fits in with a lot of new trends in baseball, with his flaws not being as big of an issue, as long as he brings his strengths, which are power and defense.
Links and Notes
**The 2015 Prospect Guide is now available on the products page. The book features our full top 50 prospects, plus profiles for every player in the system. I’m on vacation this week, which means all book orders placed will ship out on Monday morning, January 12th. All eBooks will be available for download immediately.
