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Friday, December 2, 2022

Keith Law’s Second Mock Draft Has High Upside Prep Arm For Pirates

Keith Law released his second mock draft on Tuesday afternoon and he has a brand new name for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After picking Vanderbilt’s Tyler Beede in his first draft, he has the Pirates going with high school right-handed pitcher Luis Ortiz. Law has Beede falling out of the first round completely.

Like Beede, Ortiz is a player that has dropped in the rankings, but unlike Beede, it wasn’t due to performance. Ortiz missed time with what was called a forearm strain, though Law points out in his scouting report that it likely means he had a sore elbow and didn’t want to scare off teams by revealing that. The injury wasn’t anything serious, as Ortiz returned to action and was hitting 95 MPH. He has topped out at 97 in the past.

He is a big kid at 6’3″, 220 pounds and has been rated much higher, especially coming into this season when some had him as a top ten pick. Ortiz offers a three pitch mix, with that plus fastball, a slider that is a plus pitch at times and a change-up that rates as average. He also has average control already on all three pitches, making him a polished high school pitcher with big upside when you add everything up.

We posted video of Ortiz in an earlier link, which you can view here.

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John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball.

When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.


Pirates Prospects has been independently owned and operated since 2009, entirely due to the support of our readers. The site is now completely free, funded entirely by user support. By supporting the site, you are supporting independent writers, one of the best Pittsburgh Pirates communities online, and our mission for the most complete Pirates coverage available.

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Like every year…..There are players that will Fall!! We benefited like crazy last year to get two great players!! Are there players above our pick that could possibly fall to us???


If they can get Ortiz with the 2nd pick that would be great, but with a system that has no 3rd basemen or 1st basemen in it, they can’t pass Gillespie if he is there for any pitcher.


Ortiz would be a pretty solid selection but I don’t see it happening due to the other players available. Pirates will almost certainly go with the best player available regardless of need and I just don’t see Ortiz being the highest upside selection. Several mocks and rankings I’ve seen have Ortiz in the 30-40 range. In terms of high school arms, Blewett, Adams, and Reid-Foley would be higher upside picks (I don’t have Insider so I don’t know where Law ranks them).

Gillaspie would be a pretty good bat but to say we have no 1B or 3B prospects is, I think, a bit misleading. We have several players who will, in all likelihood, transition to 1B, Josh Bell perhaps the best candidate and Stetson Allie already at the position. As for 3B, we have nothing in the immediate year but there are a few names, Wyatt Mathisen at the top of it, who could take that spot. I think it is better to say we have no clear cut prospects at the position but it doesn’t mean we have no hope of a player moving to that position. I am more in favor of just taking whoever is best available. You honestly can’t ever have too much depth, especially in pitching.


No….its really not. We have nowhere to put certain positions. at some level, you have to make “bad” decisions because you have more prospects at a position than you have reasonable clubs to play them with. That’s how you end up with an aggressive push for one catcher and a position transition to 3rd for another. Its how you end up with way too many outfielders in an organization that stresses ground ball pitching, with very few strong prospects with above average defense coming up through the organization. Again, goes back to best available player. At some point, logic has to step in, because teams do not trade prospects for prospects very often. You can’t just trade Austin Meadows for an equally ranked shortstop very often, if ever. So how do we fill these glaring holes in our organizatzion? Force players to make moves to positions that lessen their value at the same time they are trying to learn how to hit tougher pitching? Force someone to the bench? There comes a point of declining economies of scale for a competitive team, i’m not saying we are there yet, but we are getting there and we need to realize this approach won’t work forever


I guess I disagree, Y2. Especially the first round, you go for the BPA. Of course six different people would have 6 different players as the BPA. You want to take a shot at getting a star player. While you may not trade minor league prospects for minor league prospects, you do trade prospects as part of a package deal which includes major league players. That’s what the Pirates have done with their excess of pitchers and outfielders. What position do most teams relish? Pitchers, no question.

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