Updated win projection: 76.5

Before we get too deep into the season, I need to post the updated 2010 win projection. I originally published this in January, but the roster has gone through several changes since that point. Ryan Church has been added, as have multiple relievers. Brandon Moss has been removed.

I also slightly refined the method, specifically regarding the defense. Previously, I just eyeballed each player’s career UZR/150 and projected their 2010 number in my head. I have since begun using actual projections, published by Steve Sommer at Play a Hard Nine. For players without a projection, I simply went with my best guess. Minor League Splits helped with players that have yet to reach the majors. For the most part, I used the standard positional adjustments to modify defensive projections for players expected to split time at different positions. Also, CHONE projected Kevin Hart as a reliever and Hayden Penn as a starter. The Book estimates that a pitcher’s FIP fluctuates by about 0.8 runs when switching between starter and reliever, so I simply made the adjustment to flip roles for each pitcher.

The final projection: 76.5 wins. That’s right, the Pirates will have one tie in 2010. The full spreadsheet can be found here.

http://pittsburghlumberco.com/?p=1549
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